Two Finnish MPs have launched the ‘Free the Leopard’ campaign, and Denmark is thinking about it: it is an aid that would have a great impact on the Ukraine war, but which finds an obstacle in the veto of Germany, producer of the Leopard 2. The possibility of a supply has re-emerged after the ‘chain reaction’ triggered by France’s decision to give Ukraine several Amx 10 light tanks and, two days later, by the announcement of the joint US-German initiative to send some 50 Bradley armoured vehicles, equipped with a cannon and anti-tank Tow missile (from Washington), and 40 Marders IFVs (from Berlin). These vehicles can increase the strength of Ukrainian resistance, and guarantee more room for manoeuvre especially if used in coordination with other components. Analysts see this as a sign of a gradual change that could lead to German tanks being ceded to Ukraine: Poland, Finland and Denmark have hundreds of Leopards at their disposal. There is still the opposition of the German government, which is opposed in principle to making the leap: after much wavering, Germany has agreed to cede the Marders, saying that they are ‘defensive’ systems while the Leopards are ‘offensive’ (a distinction of convenience, in fact non-existent). In reality, the German government would not want to create new tensions with the Kremlin, a position not unlike the Pentagon’s position on long-range rockets that have always been denied to Ukraine. Now some experts believe that the tank taboo has been broken so they are insisting on more support, and criticising NATO‘s strategy of supply: so far, as far as tanks are concerned, the Atlantic Alliance has limited itself to facilitating the delivery of old systems of ‘Soviet’ design, such as the Polish and Czech T 72s or the modernised Slovenian T 55s. The US has been discussing the possibility of handing over the Abrams to the resistance for a few months now: the way is now open, all that is missing are the circumstances that would allow Joe Biden to give his consent. So far, the White House has entrenched itself behind diplomatic justifications and logistical objections: American tanks are not the easiest solution because they consume so much and need massive assistance.
