Danish Defence Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) reports that Russia could pose a ‘credible threat’ to one or more NATO countries within two years if the Alliance does not strengthen its defence capabilities. There is also a risk of a major war in Europe within the next five years, again caused by Russia. FE notes how the Kremlin has initiated ‘a major rebuilding and reform of the country’s armed forces’, shifting the focus to fighting a future conflict against NATO. ‘Russia has already managed to modernise its military equipment and significantly increase its military production: […] it can already free up resources for its rearmament against NATO, […] thanks to the financial and material support it receives from outside’. The FE analysis sees no current direct threat to Denmark: it assumes a scenario in which the war in Ukraine ends or remains frozen, in which case Russia ‘would be able to free up significant military resources, posing a direct threat to NATO’. In such a case, the FE estimates that within six months Russia would be able to ‘fight a local war in a neighbouring country’; within about two years it would ‘pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries, ready for a regional war against several nations in the Baltic region‘; and finally, within about five years Moscow would be ‘ready for a full-scale war on the European continent in which the US would not be involved’. These time horizons assume that NATO will not be able to arm itself simultaneously and at the same pace.
