Halving of Growth Forecast

In a striking turn, Denmark’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from an initially projected 3 percent to just 1.4 percent. This adjustment, effectively halving growth expectations, was unveiled in late August and is largely driven by two critical factors: weakening demand for Novo Nordisk’s flagship products and mounting U.S. tariffs hitting Danish exports.

Novo Nordisk’s Dimmed Outlook and Market Strain

Novo Nordisk, globally renowned for its obesity and diabetes treatments—most notably Wegovy and Ozempic—has seen demand falter in a turbulent U.S. market. Competition from rivals like Eli Lilly, along with pricing pressures and a cooling obesity-drug boom, have reduced growth expectations for the second half of 2025. This dip in demand has undermined the company’s sales outlook and by extension, Denmark’s export strength.

Export Headwinds

Exports now expected to grow by just 0.9% contrast starkly with the 4.3% forecast from just a few months earlier in May. This sharp drop is tied both to Novo Nordisk’s slipping market share and broader U.S. trade tensions affecting Danish exports.

Broader Economic Ripple Effects

These developments have reverberated beyond pharmaceuticals:

Denmark’s OMX stock index slipped 0.9%, and the krone weakened slightly, reflecting market concerns.

Economists now emphasize that Denmark—long buoyed by its pharmaceutical success—is vulnerable to corporate-specific shocks.

Context: A Dramatic Reversal

Just a year prior, Novo Nordisk had been hailed as the engine of Denmark’s economy. In December 2024, government projections had lifted the 2025 forecast to 2.9% from 2.2%, crediting the firm’s booming export-led growth and job creation . However, this report now marks a sharp reversal—from an anchor of optimism to a weak spot.

In Summary

Denmark’s revised economic outlook underscores a perilous overreliance on a single corporate powerhouse: Novo Nordisk. Now facing weakened demand, increased competition, and export headwinds, the pharmaceutical giant’s struggles have translated directly into a bleak economic forecast—cutting growth expectations dramatically in just a few months. As Denmark’s policymakers and markets digest this shift, the episode highlights both the rewards and risks of corporate-driven economic buoyancy.

Read more on Barrons.com,  Reuters.com