Norwegians head to the polls tomorrow in what is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable elections in recent years. The campaign has been dominated by domestic issues such as inflation, energy prices, and taxation, yet foreign policy and the role of the country’s sovereign wealth fund have unexpectedly pushed their way into the debate in the final stretch. At the heart of the domestic agenda lies a controversial wealth tax introduced by the current centre-left government. Norway applies a 1% levy on all fortunes above 1.76 million kroner (€150,000), with partial exemptions for real estate. Right-wing parties are campaigning to abolish it, either in full or in part. While such issues have traditionally benefited the Conservatives, this year it is the right-wing Progress Party that has capitalised on tax discontent.
Polls show Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre’s Labour Party still leading, with 26.9% support. The Progress Party, led by Sylvi Listhaug, has surged to second place with 21.1%, overtaking the Conservatives of former prime minister Erna Solberg, now trailing at 14.3%. Several smaller parties — the Greens, the Socialist Left, the Marxist Red Party, the agrarian Centre Party, Christian Democrats and Liberals — all hover between 4% and 6%, comfortably above the threshold for parliamentary representation. The result is expected to be a highly fragmented parliament. Although foreign policy was largely absent from the campaign, it re-emerged dramatically when Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund was criticised for investments in Israeli companies linked to the Gaza conflict. The fund has already divested from around thirty firms, citing ethical guidelines, but the move sparked controversy at home and abroad. U.S. allies of former president Donald Trump condemned the decision to sell Caterpillar shares, threatening retaliation. In Oslo, meanwhile, Palestinian flags and banners have become a regular sight in demonstrations outside parliament.
Analysts suggest that in times of international instability, voters may turn to experienced leaders. Støre, 65, is a former foreign minister with more than two decades in politics. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s outgoing secretary general and current finance minister, also remains an influential figure within Labour. The outcome could hinge on coalition mathematics. If Labour prevails, it is likely to continue governing as a minority, relying on shifting alliances with parties to its left and centre. A right-wing victory would be more complicated: the Progress Party’s rise makes it a potential senior partner in government, but its hard-line positions remain unpalatable to smaller centre-right parties. An attempt at a two-party arrangement with the Conservatives, backed externally by Christian Democrats and Liberals, has been floated but risks instability — a scenario that recently failed in the Netherlands. Turnout is expected to be high. Nearly 1.5 million Norwegians, out of 4 million eligible voters, have already cast early ballots. With nine parties in contention and polls tightening in the final days, tomorrow’s vote is set to determine not only the shape of Norway’s next government, but also how Europe’s largest gas supplier balances domestic pressures with its growing international responsibilities.
