As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Finland and the Baltic region see Russia as a constant and structural security threat: Helsinki, in particular, argues that even a future peace agreement in Ukraine would not end Moscow’s ambitions, as Russian military pressure would simply shift northwards, towards the eastern flank of NATO. Finland’s concerns are rooted in both history and geography. Finns often note that their country has fought Russia dozens of times over the centuries, the most traumatic episode being the Winter War of 1939–40. In extreme conditions, with temperatures dropping to –43°C, Finland managed to resist a Soviet invasion for more than two months until the Red Army reorganised and broke through, forcing Finland to cede around 12% of its territory. That defeat left a deep and lasting mark on the Finnish national psyche. Since the Second World War, and especially because of the 1,340-kilometre border it shares with Russia, Finland has built one of the most comprehensive defence systems in Europe. With a population of just 5.5 million, its wartime military strength reaches around 280,000 troops, supported by roughly 900,000 trained reservists. In practical terms, one in six Finns has military training, making Finland’s army one of the largest in Europe relative to population size. Military preparedness is only one part of the picture: Finland has also invested heavily in civil defence and resilience. The country maintains at least six months’ worth of reserves of key fuels, such as petrol and diesel, as well as strategic grain stocks. Pharmaceutical companies are legally required to hold between three and ten months’ supply of imported medicines. Large buildings must include air-raid shelters, while the wider population can use underground car parks, ice rinks and swimming pools, all designed to be rapidly converted into evacuation or protection centres. Detailed contingency plans exist for the event of an invasion: operating fighter jets remotely, laying naval mines along key sea routes, and preparing ground defences such as the demolition of bridges. Faced with what it sees as a renewed imperial and authoritarian drive from Russia, Finland joined NATO in 2023, and it withdrew from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines. Against this backdrop, Helsinki is now asking its European partners for stronger financial backing for the defence of frontline states. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has been explicit: once fighting in Ukraine subsides, Russia will remain a threat. Finland is not waiting passively, Orpo is hosting the first summit of eight countries that share either a land or maritime border with Russia or Belarus: Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. The goal is to develop shared military capabilities (air defence, drones and ground forces), and to coordinate how troops and equipment could be moved rapidly across Europe in a crisis. Across the eastern flank, defence spending for Estonia, Lithuania and Poland is rising beyond 5% of their GDP. These countries are also among Ukraine’s strongest supporters when aid is measured relative to economic size. Denmark ranks first in per-capita military assistance to Kyiv, far ahead of larger European economies, and has recently accelerated the acquisition of long-range precision weapons in response to emerging threats. Looking ahead to upcoming European summits, Orpo has been clear about Finland’s limits and commitments: As a small country, Finland cannot provide direct security guarantees to Kyiv, but it will contribute through training missions, intelligence sharing and other collective measures. For Finland and its Baltic neighbours, the lesson of history is stark: preparedness, solidarity and sustained investment in defence are not optional. They are the price of security on Europe’s northeastern frontier.
