Updated March 17, at 18:28
Below is a map that shows the impact area if lava were to reach the sea. That scenario and the response plans related to it have been discussed at the status meetings of the Norwegian Meteorological Agency and Civil Defense yesterday and today.
The lava edge in the south is less than 250 m away from Suðurstrandarveð. This afternoon, the advance of the edge has been around 12 m/h, which is considerably less speed than was measured earlier today. If the speed remains unchanged, lava will reach Suðurstrandarveð in about 20 hours. The lava would then have to travel an additional 350 m to reach the sea. If lava reached the sea, it could cause a local hazard due to the rapid cooling of the lava. At first there would be danger from pyroclasticity and gas formation, primarily hydrochloric acid (HCI). In a radius of about 500 m from the point where lava would come into contact with the sea, conditions would be life-threatening. As the distance goes, the risk decreases and is negligible at a distance of more than 3 km. If you look at the development of the activity of the eruption today, it is considered unlikely that lava will reach the sea. Based on the speed of the lava advance this afternoon (12 m/h), it would take about two days. While the eruption continues, it is nevertheless important to be prepared for this scenario, as the conditions that could then arise are life-threatening to those within the affected area.
Updated March 17, at 00:50
An eruption has started between Hagafell and Stóra-Skógfell. The source is closer to Stóra-Scógfell, in a similar place to the eruption that occurred on February 8. The lead-up to the eruption was short, but the eruption began at 20:23. The eruption has now been going on for over four hours. Based on the visual assessment in the surveillance flight of the Swedish Coast Guard, it seems that the power of the eruption has not decreased much. The southern and northernmost part of the crack seems to have faded a bit. Otherwise, the entire fissure erupts fairly continuously. The lava bed that now flows over Grindavíkurveg is significantly wider than in February. According to information from the surveillance flight, the advance of the lava tongue, which flows south, has slowed down. The speed is now estimated to be around 300 m/h.
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