There are grounds to be sceptical about how important the deposit of rare earths in Kiruna (Swedish Arctic) really is: how long could it take to develop? How big it is? Which would be the impact on the local environment? How realistic will it be for Europe to wean itself off Chinese supplies? Would Europe actually be capable to process the rare earths elements? According to Per Kalvig, researcher emeritus at the ‘Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland‘, the ‘Per Geijer’ deposit has actually been known about for decades and LKAB gave few details to help geologists determine the quality of the find. Rare earths are used in everything, from mobile phones and windmills to batteries and electric vehicles: the truth about European industry’s massive green transition is that it is almost entirely dependent on China for rare earths and mineral processing. Therefore, the prospect of abundant minerals under European soil (LKAB announced there were more than 1mn tonnes of rare earth oxides near Kiruna) was immensely cheering for Sweden and for the group of EU commissioners who visited LKAB’s current iron ore mine in Kiruna. The Swedish government is enthusiastic and hopes that this find could be the equivalent of Norway’s find of oil in the late 1960s. Northern Sweden is currently at the forefront of the industry green transition thanks to Europe’s first homegrown gigafactory producing batteries for Northvolt, and two separate large projects for green steel: the projects could increase Sweden’s importance in geopolitics, and help reduce Europe’s dependence on China. The move by LKAB, chaired by former Swedish prime minister Göran Persson, could be an attempt to lock the government into making the green industrialisation of northern Sweden a success. In order to succeed, the government would need to defuse conflicts arising from the green transition: Sami reindeer herders have complained repeatedly that their land is being sacrificed to mines and windmills, both in Sweden and Norway; there is a similar issue at the ‘Fen complex’, a Norwegian rare earths deposit (possibly larger than Per Geijer) that is underneath farmland and villages, prompting scepticism on whether it can be developed. The companies involved in the green transition in turn complain about the time taken to grant permits, a common complaint across Europe for wind and solar projects. Such is the demand from LKAB for energy to make its iron ore free from carbon (estimated as a third of Sweden’s entire current production) that there are worries about whether there will be enough power for the wind and nuclear projects already planned: ending the dependence on China requires more than a few headlines.
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